Similar to the Kelly Criterion technique, the amount of your bet will depend on the probability you give to the outcome of your bet. In other words, the money you will invest in a bet depends on your confidence index.
The variable betting system
You can create an increasing confidence scale from 1 to 10.
Example: The Italy – France friendly match in November 2012 on the PMU Sport website.
Let’s estimate, after analysis, that you want to play a victory for France, which has just knocked out the invincible Spain at home in the qualifiers for Euro 2012. The odds are high (3.20) and you are moderately confident about the outcome of this bet. You give a score of 4/10 on your confidence scale.
We advise you never to bet more than 5% of your capital per bet. You therefore apply your confidence score to the maximum percentage you should not exceed.
This gives you: 4/10 x 5% = 0.4 x 5% = 2%.
You must play 2% of your portfolio. If you have €200 in your account, play €4.
On the same day you decide to play on the next day of Ligue 1, which takes place on the coming weekend. The bets displayed on the PMU Sport website are as follows:
You decide to bet on PSG playing at home against Rennes. The odds are low (1.40) but your confidence is higher on this bet. You estimate this level of confidence at 8/10. You therefore apply your confidence score to the maximum percentage you must not exceed.
This gives you: 8/10 x 5% = 0.8 x 5% = 4%.
You must play 4% of your portfolio. If you have €200 in your account, play €8.
Sports betting method – The fixed bet system
The fixed bet system is very easy to understand as it is simply a matter of always betting the same amount. The only variable is the amount in your account. If you have €100 on your account and you listen to advice on portfolio management (do not bet more than 5% of your account on a bet), you must bet €5 each time.
Increase your bets according to your portfolio. If you reach a balance of 200€, increase your bet to 10€ per bet.
In the example below, the bettor starts a series of 4 bets with a balance of around €50 (read from the bottom). He decides to bet 10% of his account on each bet, i.e. €5. After these 4 fair bets, his account balance exceeds €60. If he keeps his logic, he will start his new round of betting with bets of €6.
The variable payout system is undoubtedly one of the most reliable systems because it limits the risk of bankruptcy. This type of betting allows you to manage the moments when you have a big series of unlucky bets, and thus fall back on your feet. Because if you have a string of lost bets with too much bet, it is the ruin of your insured account.
The only difficulty is to carefully analyse what confidence index you give to your bet. To begin with, advises you to test the fixed betting system and then the variable betting system. Then adopt the one that suits you best.